Key messages

• Climate change is affecting the amount and distributions of habitats for native animals, generally leading to heightened extinction risk for threatened species.
• The Koalas in the Landscape project collated and produced NSW koala habitat data spanning 2000 to 2070, projecting where wild koala populations would be into the future and how climate change will affect habitat and carrying capacity for koalas.
• The project mapped areas for opportunities for building new koala habitat.
• The data identified important areas for koala conservation to help improve conservation decisions, reduce extinction risk and address the challenges of climate change.

Context

The Koalas in the Landscape (KITL) project was undertaken by the NSW Government in collaboration with the University of New England and Macquarie University and was funded by the NSW Koala Strategy. Together with the Persistence in Landscapes dataset, these projects forecast climate change impacts for koalas and 75 other NSW and Commonwealth listed threatened fauna.

The KITL project identified landscape locations that can support koalas into the future in the face of reductions in habitat extent, quality and connectivity, and the projected impacts of climate change – especially extreme heat and drought – on koalas and their habitat through to 2070.

The project considered the koala’s need to move across large distances to disperse and reach habitat resources, while maintaining viable populations, and that koala feed tree distributions are themselves subject to climate impacts. Modelling was undertaken separately for inland and coastal NSW (Figure 1) to account for differences in these 2 regions before being combined. 

In this project, a measure of koala landscape capacity was calculated and used to help guide management. ‘Landscape capacity’ is a measure, or metric, of potential occupancy that integrates the habitat present locally at each geographic location, with the ability of koalas to move to and from that location to access sufficient habitat to support a viable koala population.

Through the research in mapping habitat and projected changes and understanding koala population locations and dispersal, NSW DCCEEW and the Koala Strategy was able to better prioritise koala conservation actions across NSW.

Key findings

The Koalas in the Landscape project collated and produced koala habitat data spanning 2000 to 2070. The project modelled and spatially mapped koala habitat and landscape capacity across NSW for pre-industrial (1750), baseline (2000) and future (up to 2070) periods (Figure 2) and produced estimates for total landscape capacity through this timeframe (Figure 3). Spatial mapping was produced that integrates climate considerations into prioritising where best to conserve and restore koala habitat in the state.

The results found:

• A marked loss of landscape capacity (down by 71%) occurred from the pre-industrial era (circa 1750) to 2000, mostly due to clearing of koala habitat.
• In the absence of significant added conservation efforts, from 2000 to 2070 a further 16% loss from pre-industrial times is expected, due solely to projected climate change impacts (no further clearing or habitat construction considered).
• Spatially, the greatest forecast losses in koala landscape capacity are in lower altitude areas on the western slopes and plains where landscape capacity was high in the past but where conditions are now becoming hotter and drier.

The study measured expected benefits to NSW koala landscape capacity from conserving and enhancing existing habitats or constructing new habitats to support koala populations into the future (Figure 3). In some cases, the best course of action is to plant, or otherwise help the establishment of, climate-ready koala feed trees in suitable areas. This is by planting into areas that have been cleared of native vegetation in the past or by planting into suitable uncleared areas that lack climate-ready feed trees. The mapping also identifies places koala's populations could occupy if they were better connected to viable populations.

The project’s findings are best used, especially for the purpose of planning species recovery, in conjunction with finer grained information on threats, local habitat conditions, and opportunities for action. See NSW DCCEEW Koalas in The Landscape report for full details.

Applications and adaptation

By understanding the location of koalas and koala habitat and future changes, conservation actions and planning can be location specific and responsive.

The development of a koala conservation options map and data identifies location-specific landscape management actions that are most relevant to promoting koala landscape capacity and provides stakeholders with an understanding of management options for koala habitat. These include planting climate-ready koala feed trees in currently cleared areas and areas where such trees can grow under new climatic conditions.

The Koalas in the Landscape (version 1.0) project represents a significant step in a process of innovative response to the significant challenges of adaptation planning for threatened species in response to a range of pressures which include climate change. Work on version 2.0 is underway. It is making use of improved koala tree modelling and will complement landscape capacity mapping with koala climate migration path mapping. 

Further information

NSW Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water Koalas in the Landscape: landscape capacity to support koala populations through climate change, 2024

Credits/references

This project was a collaboration between NSW Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, University of New England and Macquarie University and was funded by the NSW Koala Strategy.