Key messages

• Climate change is intensifying rainfall extremes and driving shifts in erosion patterns across NSW.
• Understanding future rainfall erosivity – how much rain contributes to soil erosion – is essential to protect soils, landscapes and water quality.
• High-resolution modelling with NARCliM2.0 climate change projections links climate, soil, vegetation and terrain data to identify erosion hotspots.
• The Erosion and Rainfall Erosivity Model provides decision-ready insights to guide recovery and adaptation planning.
• Developing localised, place-based actions in response to erosion is needed rather than a single statewide approach.
• The modelled and predicted hillslope erosion data package is available on SEED. 

Context

A changing landscape under a changing climate 

Hillslope erosion in south-east Australia is shaped by the region’s climate, topography and land use. It strips fertile soil, reduces agricultural productivity, and carries sediment into waterways, threatening landscapes and ecosystems. Understanding how rainfall erosivity and hillslope erosion will change under different climate futures is essential to plan for sustainable land management and climate adaptation (Figure 1).  

Supported by the NSW Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, since 2014, scientists from the NSW Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) used the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model combined with NARCliM1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 climate projections to predict rainfall erosivity and soil erosion across NSW. The study simulated monthly and annual erosion rates under historical (1990–2009) and future projections (2025–2100) for low (SSP1-2.6), medium (SSP2-4.5), and high emissions (SSP3-7.0) emissions scenarios at a 4-km spatial resolution.  

Key findings

Extreme rainfall and shifting storm patterns are changing the erosion landscape of NSW. Understanding how rainfall erosivity, the ability of rainfall to cause soil loss, responds to future climate change is essential for protecting soils, farmlands and waterways.

Using the recent NARCliM2.0 regional climate projections, NSW DCCEEW scientists modelled rainfall erosivity and soil erosion risk across NSW for historical and future periods (to 2100) under low, medium, and high emission scenarios. 

The results reveal distinct regional contrasts, reflecting how local climate, topography and vegetation interact to shape erosion processes (Figure 2). These were:

• under low-emissions (SSP1-2.6), rainfall erosivity is likely to decrease across most of NSW, meaning drier conditions and less erosion.
• under high-emissions (SSP3-7.0), erosivity is expected to increase sharply, especially in north-east and coastal areas, where intense rainfall will become more frequent.
• Western NSW is projected to remain largely stable under both scenarios.
• overall, about 30% of NSW will see moderate change, showing that climate impacts differ across regions, some will dry, while others face stronger rain and higher erosion risk.

These findings identify that localised, place-based actions, are needed rather than a single statewide approach. Areas with rising erosion risk will benefit from targeted soil conservation, revegetation and land management practices to help protect productive land and keep waterways clean.

The results provide practical information to help councils, Local Land Services and water managers plan recovery and climate adaptation efforts. The modelled erosion risk maps (e.g. Figure 2) guide where to focus resources, supporting smart investment in soil and water protection and helping communities prepare for future extreme rainfall events.

Interactive maps and the Modelled Hillslope Erosion over New South Wales - NARCliM2.0 dataset is available through SEED to guide adaptation planning across NSW’s diverse landscapes. 

Adaptation strategies

Adapting to shifting rainfall and erosion patterns requires local, evidence-based action. The Erosion and Rainfall Erosivity Model provide practical data to help councils, landholders and water managers plan for future conditions.

The model’s fine-scale maps highlight where soil loss is most likely to occur and the severity under different climate scenarios, guiding erosion control, revegetation and infrastructure planning. This enables agencies to prioritise high-risk areas, protect productive land, and maintain water quality.

Integrating these projections into land-use planning and catchment management helps communities prepare for intense rainfall events and reduce recovery costs. Local Land Services can apply the data to design on-ground soil conservation programs, while councils can strengthen drainage, roads and flood mitigation strategies.

By turning climate science into decision-ready tools, this approach supports targeted, place-based adaptation and builds long-term resilience across NSW landscapes and communities.

Further reading

Resources

1. NSW Government (Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water), Soil erosion and rainfall erosivity research webpage including Soil Erosion Climate Change Impact Snapshot
2. NSW Government (Environmental Protection Authority) State of the Environment Report: Hillslope erosion
    

Relevant research

1. Yang X, Gray J, Chapman G, Zhu Q, Tulau M, McInnes-Clarke S. Digital mapping of soil erodibility for water erosion in New South Wales, Australia. Soil Research, 2018, 58, 158–170. doi: https://doi.org/10.1071/SR17058.
2. Yang X, Yu B. Modelling and mapping rainfall erosivity in New South Wales, Australia. Soil Research. 2015, 53, 178-189. doi: https://doi.org/10.1071/SR14188.
3. Yang X, State and trends of hillslope erosion across New South Wales, Australia. Catena 186, 104361. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2019.104361
4. Zhu Q, Yang X, Ji F, Liu DL, Yu Q. Extreme rainfall, rainfall erosivity, and hillslope erosion in Australian Alpine region and their future changes. International Journal of Climatology. 2020; 40: 1213–1227. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6266
5. Zhu, Q., Yang, X., Ji, F. and Du, Z., Rainfall Erosivity Projection in South-East Australia Using the Improved Regional Climate Simulations. International Journal of Climatology, 2025, 45(2), e8702. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8702